The 30% Sure Thing

If there is one thing I have learned from living in Colorado for over eight years now, it is that the likelihood of precipitation when the forecast is calling for a 30% chance is higher than a forecast of 60%.


It seems to be the sweet spot for the weather peeps. As I type the 40% chance of snow for this afternoon has taken the shape of sunshine in my part of town, but I'm pretty sure it will be snowing tonight when they get into the 30% hours. Additionally, the activities on tap for tomorrow (and some declaration of good weather by the promoter) further increase the likelihood.

My theory is that 30% is low enough that when it doesn't happen they can simply say, "Well . . . we only said 30% chance . . ." and when there is precipitation they say, "We told you it was going to snow." My prediction for tomorrow is that I will fall over when I start to run after the TT effort which will result in a 30% chance of laughter from myself and others.


Ever have those moments? Press the button above and you'll know exactly what I'm talking about.